UK North Sea-focused oil and gas company Orcadian's management said Tuesday it had completed an update of its estimate of technically recoverable resources for the Pilot field, increasing it 18% to 97 MMbbl for a P50 case based upon a polymer flood development scheme.
Orcadian said that its estimate of Pilot field resources was audited in a CPR by Sproule in 2021 and was included in the company's Admission Document. Sproule assigned 78.8 MMbbl of 2P reserves to the project, 1P reserves were 58.5 MMbbl and 3P reserves were 110.5 MMbbl.
"Since listing, Orcadian has licensed and, with support from Axis, interpreted newly reprocessed seismic data over Pilot, which resulted in an uplift to the developed area oil-in-place. TRACS then constructed a range of geological realizations, and the Orcadian team ran multiple dynamic reservoir simulations to establish a new range of technically recoverable resources," Orcadian said.
Orcadian further said that multiple geological models were designed to incorporate the full range of heterogeneity that the company sees as possible across the Pilot field, and new full-field reservoir models were then calibrated to the results of the company's polymer core flood experimental results.
"These models have been tested with a range of possibilities for multiple parameters and from that work the team have derived a statistical range of developed area recovery factors which is highly consistent with the range of recovery factors adopted by Sproule in the CPR. This convergence provides great confidence in the latest range of resource estimates as the estimates of recovery factor have been arrived at from two entirely different routes: a stochastic reservoir simulation approach (Orcadian management) and by comparison with analogue fields (Sproule)," Orcadian said.
The table below outlines the Orcadian Management's updated estimate of technically recoverable resources for the Pilot field:
Technically recoverable resources (i.e. before an economic cut-off) MMbbl | Sproule CPR | Orcadian management estimates | Uplift |
Proven or P90 | 61.5 | 65.3 | 6.2% |
Proven plus probable or P50 | 82.0 | 97.1 | 18.4% |
Proven, probable plus possible or P10 | 112.8 | 131.0 | 16.1% |
These new estimates incorporate the impact of optimized polymer dosages and can be directly compared with the technical recoverable resources noted in Table 2 of the Sproule CPR, Orcadian said.
For clarity, Orcadian said, these are management estimates, represent gross production from the field, and have not been audited by Orcadian's Competent Person.
"This resource update is SPE PRMS 2018 system compliant. The figures quoted are technically recoverable resources before the application of an economic cut-off which is required for the classification of these resources as reserves," Orcadian said.
Steve Brown, Orcadian's CEO, commented: "We are very pleased with the results of this updated resource estimate. This is the culmination of eighteen months of work, which started with the interpretation of the newly reprocessed seismic from TGS. Since then, working with TRACS, we have constructed multiple geological realizations and tested our development plan taking into account both downside scenarios as well as the exciting upside possibilities.
"A thorough understanding of the reservoir and how it will perform is the foundation of any sound development plan. We are confident that this work has not only given us that understanding, but will also provide an excellent basis for potential farm-in partners to evaluate the Pilot development in the coming months."
Orcadian’s proposed field development concept for the Pilot field is based upon a Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO), with over thirty wells to be drilled by a Jack-up rig through a pair of well head platforms, and the provision of power from a floating wind turbine.