BP is forecasting that renewables will become the fastest growing fuel source by 2035, nearly quadrupling over the next 20 years, according to the UK oil giant’s latest Energy Outlook.
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Image from BP. |
BP’s 2017 Energy Outlook sets out a base case which outlines the "most likely" path for global energy markets until 2035, based on assumptions and judgments about future changes in policy, technology and the economy.
Even with the 7.6% per year growth of renewables, BP says that fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of global energy supplies, at 77%, in 2035.
With oil, BP says that there is an abundance of oil resources, of which the known resources today, dwarf the world's likely consumption of oil out to 2050 and beyond.
"Global proved oil reserves have more than doubled over the past 35 years," BP says. "For every barrel of oil consumed, more than two new barrels have been discovered."
The supermajor is projecting that global energy consumption will increase by some 30%, as the global economy nearly doubles in size. Energy intensity is expected to take its biggest fall, faster than any time since at least 1965.
As for energy demand, BP anticipates a very small growth within the OECD. By 2035, the OECD accounts for only a third of global primary energy demand, down from a half in 2007 and two-thirds in 1979, the company says.
Recoverable oil are estimated to be some 2.6 trillion bbl, with about 1.7 trillion bbl (65%) of those resources located in the Middle East, CIS countries, and North America.
Cumulative oil demand out to 2035 is anticipated to around 0.7 trillion bbl. Looking out further to 2050, BP says that cumulative global oil demand amounts to less than half of today's technically recoverable oil resources.
From 2015-2035, world energy demand is projected to grow by 1.3% per year, with virtually all growth coming from emerging economies, with China and India accounting for over half the increase.
BP sees gas growing faster than coal and oil, at 1.6% per year, overtaking coal to become the second-largest global fuel source by 2035. Oil remains the dominant global fuel and continues to grow, by 0.7% per year, but at a slowing pace.
Global oil production becomes geographically more concentrated as low cost producers gain share. The Middle East, US, and Russia account for 63% of oil production in 2035, up from 56% in 2015, the supermajor says.
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