From 2014 to 2040, global energy demand will increase by 25% due to population growth and economic expansion, according to ExxonMobil’s 2016 edition of The Outlook for Energy.
 |
|
Energy demand. Graph from ExxonMobil. |
The company said that the 25% increase would have been far higher, exceeding 110%, if analysts did not foresee steep improvements in energy efficiency across all demand sectors.
During the period, the world’s population is expected to increase by about 2 billion people, and emerging economies will continue to expand significantly. Most growth in energy demand will occur in developing nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the company said.
Ten key growth countries: Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia, will drive strong increases in energy demand due to their rising populations and living standards, accounting for about 30% of the projected growth in energy demand through 2040.
In deepwater production, Exxon sees an increase of about 70% from 2014, with global output exceeding 10 MMb/d by 2040. Key deepwater areas include Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, and the US Gulf of Mexico.
“Not only is oil production expanding, so is the amount of oil traded between nations; about half of global liquid-fuel demand is expected to continue to be met through international trade. This is positive news for consumers. By enabling supplies to flow smoothly between nations, a robust global trading network helps meet the need for liquid fuels efficiently and affordably,” ExxonMobil said.
The company anticipates that oil will remain the top fuel, with gas moving to the number two position ahead of coal. Global demand for oil and other liquids is projected to rise by about 20% from 2014 to 2040.
 |
|
Natural gas projections. Graph from ExxonMobil. |
Natural gas is expected to meet about 40% of the growth in global energy needs and demand for the fuel will increase by 50%.
According to the report, North America is on pace to become a net exporter by around 2020, giving the US the capacity to become a net liquids exporter around 2025. North America is on track to export natural gas from newly constructed LNG export facilities by 2016, and by 2040 it is expected to surpass Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East to become the world’s second-largest gas exporter.
As for Asia Pacific, already the world’s largest oil-importing region, the region’s net imports are projected to rise by over 50% between 2014 and 2040 as domestic production stays flat but demand increases with rising prosperity creating new oil demand for transportation and other uses.
“ExxonMobil’s analysis and those of independent agencies confirms our long-standing view that all viable energy sources will be needed to meet increasing demand,” said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corp. “The Outlook for Energy is a useful resource to help understand future energy supply and demand, which can aid decisions by individuals, businesses and governments that together will affect the future of energy.”
Subscribe
