According to Douglas Westwood's new "World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020" report, the recent volatility of hydrocarbon prices, coupled with excessive newbuilding programs will result in low utilization impacting day rates and overall expenditure over the forecast period.
 |
|
Image from Fugro. |
However, with eventual recovery at the end of the forecast period, subsea vessel day demand is set to grow at a 5.2% CAGR over the next five years. Global subsea vessel operations expenditure is expected to increase by 29% when compared to the preceding five-year period, totaling US$97.7 billion from 2016 to 2020.
North America, Africa and Latin America are to account for 47.5% of global expenditure between 2016 and 2020. The “golden triangle” remains vital to subsea vessel demand over the forecast period despite falling oil prices, project delays and political instability associated with Africa. The development of East African gas basins in the Indian Ocean will contribute to subsea vessel demand in the latter years of the forecast period.
Asia will be the single largest market with an anticipated 18.7% of expenditure over the next five years, largely driven by shallow water inspection repair & maintenance (IRM) and pipelay-related activities.
Australasia has the fastest growth rate of all of the regions at a 46.8% CAGR due to massive offshore gas field developments required to support its ambitious LNG export commitments.
Activity in the Middle East will represent 9% of the total global subsea vessel expenditure.
Field development (36%) and IRM (40%) will remain the principal drivers of global subsea vessel demand and expenditure. As production in shallow water basins declines, activities in deeper water are set to increase as deepwater development becomes inevitable. However, operators will continue to invest in the optimization of existing shallow water fields.
Subscribe
