Wood Mackenzie has evaluated the competitive position of the three largest Russian oil and gas producers at US$60/bbl oil and their strategic action taken to date.
In 2014, the Russian majors' share price performance was hit harder by the oil price collapse than other peer groups as external pressures compounded by US and EU sanctions made western capital markets virtually inaccessible.
However, the slight rebound in oil prices this year, stronger Russian rouble and higher dividend yields have led to an enhanced performance within the industry peer group in the recent months.
Sanctions on tight oil and deepwater technology in Russia are set to drive the Russian Majors’ merger and acquisition (M&A) activity abroad, aimed at boosting their expertise in these resource themes and diversifying the inventory of long-term growth opportunities. Geopolitics will play a key role in this process.
For Rosneft, a lack of access to western capital markets and highly geared balance sheet will put any large-scale ambitions on hold, albeit the company continues to look for opportunities both in and outside Russia.
Gazprom will seek M&A openings abroad, as it tries to diversify its Russian-focused portfolio. Unconventional, deepwater and LNG themes are likely to be core targets, as well as discovered resource opportunities in countries such as Iran.
Finally, Lukoil will look for smaller opportunistic acquisitions both in and outside Russia, with Africa, Latin America and the Middle East likely to be the core target areas.
Russian Major oil and gas companies are uniquely positioned to take advantage of the current macro-economic environment and favorable fundamentals, and to withstand any prolonged period of oil price weakness, according to the latest analysis from Wood Mackenzie.
Dr. Valentina Kretzschmar, a research director for Wood Mackenzie's corporate upstream research service said: “Russian Majors upstream cash flow break evens are among the lowest in the world at less than $60/bbl. Costs are largely rouble denominated and among the lowest in the world, underpinned by vast conventional domestic legacy production; and the rouble devaluation has cushioned the negative effect from the fall in oil prices. This combination will help Russian producers stay competitive even if oil prices remain low.”
The Russian Majors' share price performance was hit harder than other peer groups when the oil price collapsed, with the added challenge of western sanctions in response to the Ukraine crisis.
“Rosneft and LUKOIL were prevented from accessing western capital markets. The sanctions imposed by the EU/US were intended to significantly hinder Russia's oil and gas production potential, by banning the use of western technology and equipment used to extract volumes from Russia's vast tight oil, Arctic and deep water resources – key for long-term domestic production,” says Kretzschmar.
“But the slight rebound in oil prices this year, stronger Russian rouble and higher dividend yields, have led to stronger performance within the industry peer group in the recent months.”
As the Russian Majors are heavily weighted to conventional oil and gas production, Wood Mackenzie says M&A strategy is likely to be guided by access to new resource themes around the world and that geopolitics will have a big part to play. Kretzschmar explains: “The sanctions imposed on Russia are pushing its Majors abroad to new resource bases in Latin America, Africa and Asia - with most of the global hotspots still open for business with Russia.”
In doing so, Wood Mackenzie says Russia would boost its expertise in more challenging resource themes including unconventional, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and deepwater developments.
“This move would help diversify Russia’s inventory away from its domestic conventional focus and help to ensure access to new longer-term growth opportunities, which has become a strategic goal for Gazprom and Lukoil. Rosneft's highly leveraged balance sheet means that the company is unlikely to undertake any large-scale acquisitions in the near-term, but smaller-scale strategic deals are on the agenda. At the same time, drilling activity is increasing on the company's domestic legacy assets,” Kretzschmar adds.
“This increase in domestic drilling is in part thanks to recent rouble devaluation, which lost 50% of its value against the US dollar in 2H 2014. This has provided some relief for the Russian Majors with predominately rouble denominated cost bases. We also believe that the structural shift in the rouble-US dollar exchange rate could provide long-term benefits for Russian producers. Although Rosneft and Lukoil have decreased exploration and production budgets by 26% year-on-year average in US dollars, they actually increased spend in Russian rouble terms,” offers Kretzschmar in closing.
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