Piracy continues

A change in Nigerian leadership will not end piracy risks to companies that operate oil and gas assets offshore West Africa. AKE Group’s Laura Barber weighs in.

A ship uses fire hose defense. Image from US Naval Institute.

An average of eight attacks were reported each month in 1Q 2015, in contrast with 2014’s monthly average of five offshore West Africa. The majority of these incidents continued to occur off Nigeria, but robberies were reported at Pointe Noire and Abidjan anchorages, and a suspicious vessel was sighted around 54nm off Takoradi, where tankers have been hijacked in the past.

Two particularly high impact attacks occurred off Nigeria in 1Q 2015. On 18 March, Belize-flagged supply vessel Maridive 603 was boarded around 19nm south of Kwa Ibo, and two Egyptian crew members were kidnapped. On 21 March, three crew members were kidnapped from ExxonMobil FPSO Yoho, after six armed men boarded the vessel around 36nm off Bonny Islands. In addition, a failed attack occurred around 22nm off Port Harcourt on 24 March, and a further unconfirmed attack was reported near the INIM field on 25 March.

The attacks occurred in the lead-up to the Nigerian presidential election in March, when the leader of Nigeria’s opposition All People’s Congress (APC) party, General Muhammadu Buhari, won with 52.4% of the votes, unseating incumbent Goodluck Jonathan and his People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

New ruler

General Buhari’s victory is a significant development. It marks the first time since independence from Britain in 1960 that an incumbent president has been defeated in an election and the first win for an opposition candidate since the end of military rule in 1991.

Jonathan’s public acceptance of defeat has reduced the space for hardline PDP supporters to actively contest the outcome or significantly disrupt the transference of power on 29 May when Buhari will be inaugurated. Nevertheless, the transition period between the 28-29 March polls and the 11 April gubernatorial election introduced a brief leadership vacuum and associated instability that led to localized incidents of political violence and associated disruption in urban centers such as Lagos and Abuja, and particularly the volatile Niger delta region.

Militants from the Urhobo ethnic minority group blew up a gas pipeline in Delta state in protest against their exclusion from pipeline protection contracts. This underscores persistent volatility in the oil-producing southern Niger delta following the victory of a northern Muslim candidate, particularly in Rivers state where the PDP secured the majority of votes.

Niger delta target

Concerns remain for an uptick in violent attacks against oil infrastructure and foreign assets in the Niger delta during the coming months. Former militant leaders of the Movement for the Emancipation for the Niger Delta (MEND) have developed business interests in the region that they are keen to protect and in the past have displayed pragmatism in reaching agreements with the government. However, Buhari is expected to end the militant amnesty scheme that has been in place since 2009 due to allegations of corruption, which, in turn, is likely to raise the potential for resurgence in organized violence in the region during the medium term. In light of Buhari’s incentive to ensure continued oil production, the new administration will likely focus on reaching a new deal with former militant leaders in the Niger delta. Container vessels, tankers and energy vessels transiting within 50nm of the Niger Delta states will continue to face a heightened risk of armed attack, which can involve kidnap for ransom. Senior, foreign crew members face the highest risk during an armed attack.

More generally, the risk of attack remains high across the Gulf of Guinea. Armed robberies, hijackings and incidences of kidnap for ransom are likely to continue up to and possibly beyond, 150nm from the coast. During the past three months, suspicious sightings of potential pirate motherships and unsuccessful attacks have occurred off Cameroon and as far south as 102nm southwest of Sao Tome and Principe.

These areas highlight the geographical reach achievable by pirates operating from motherships. Low-impact thefts and robberies will continue to occur in the Gulf of Guinea more broadly in 2015, and basic crew awareness and security measures are recommended to deter opportunistic incidents.

Dr. Laura Barber is a political risk analyst with AKE Group, specializing in subSaharan Africa. She earned her PhD from the London School of Economics, where her research focused on Chinese investment in South Sudan.