BP prepares for mild Atlantic hurricane season

With June 1 marking the beginning of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, preparation efforts in the US Gulf of Mexico are a necessity for operators such as BP.

BP, which operates four developments (Atlantis, Thunder Horse, Mad Dog, and Na Kika) located approximately 140-190mi. off the coast of New Orleans, invited members of the press to see its storm crisis center at its Westlake offices on Houston’s west side.  The room, which has been dedicated as a crisis center in the building since 2000, is adorned with charts, which can plot the progress of an evacuation, as wells as equipped with teleconferencing capabilities to check in with storm representatives who are unable to be there in person.

The 2014 season is expected to be a below average with cooler water temperatures. This past April was the 15th coldest on record, says BP Meteorologist Mike Fuori. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center predicts the occurrence of 8-13 named storms, and 1-2 major hurricanes. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season saw over 70 disturbances including 14 named storms. The 2013 season revealed some interesting observations including the fewest hurricanes since 1994, and an unexpected rise in late forming sudden storms.

BP’s forecasting is executed by the company’s meteorologists who monitor current and historical weather occurrences and relate information shown in the table (below) with other weather experts such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), TropicalStormRisk.com (TSR), and Colorado State University (CSU).

Fuori says the most observable indicators for determining hurricane formation in the Gulf of Mexico are the wind shear–the change in wind speed and direction with increasing elevation–and the temperature of the ocean. BP meteorologists monitor oceanic warming caused by El Nino and La Nina weather events as a tool in the construction of their weather models. Observing wind patterns allow the meteorologists to predict whether a strong, storm preventing wind shear will occur, or a weak, cyclone forming wind shear will take place.

According to Fuori, BP projects a less active than normal hurricane season in 2014. An expected El Nino event reaffirms the less than active forecast; however the magnitude of the event is still unknown. Waters are expected to be cooler than normal, and wind shear is projected to be sufficient in strength to further reduce hurricane formation.

Although these optimistic forecasts agree with major institutions like the NOAA and CSU, Chris Kenny BP’s Gulf of Mexico region operations manager reminds that you cannot let your guard down.

“As a storm commander, my biggest concern is Mike’s [Fuori] forecast,” he says. “You can be lulled into a false sense of security because the forecast looks nice.”

Accuracy of weather tracking has come a long way. In his presentation,  Fuori says in 1970, a weather model depicting areas potentially affected by an incoming hurricane within 48 hours of landfall had an projected coverage error range of 300nm, and in 2013 that same model only had an error of 25nm.

Late-forming sudden storms in the Gulf which can arise in as little as 48 hours are undoubtedly the biggest weather challenges faced by BP’s Gulf of Mexico operations; however they provide a unique demonstration of the companies inter-departmental collaboration to ensure the safety of the companies three biggest priorities, people, environment, and their assets.

BP’s severe weather preparations are year round, Kenny says. There are annual refresher trainings and briefings for teams both onshore and off, which include discussions on preparations and procedures, and facilities checks. Regular facility surveys ensure equipment is secure, and continuous storm monitoring is conducted when activity begins to form.

Meteorologists identify and confirm the storm activity; this information is then shared with operations management as well as the crisis and continuity team. With the collaborative information a decision is made, which in a worst case scenario involves temporary abandonment of offshore operations. Abandonment can take up to 48 hours, and can include removing upwards of 1500 people while securing or evading equipment. BP is currently operating 10 rigs in the Gulf, up from 6-7 last year, making a time efficient evacuations more of a challenge for the supermajor. With more rigs, spread over a larger area, it takes more time. Kenny says BP operates more MODUs, which can fortunately pick up and sail away.

Crisis and continuity management for the Gulf of Mexico, led by Emergency Response Manager Dennis Johnson, meets in the briefing room, which is constructed with situational awareness in mind so that almost every part of the room can be used for business. In fact the response team has prepared “go packs” in the event that the Houston crisis center or its backup in Houma, Louisiana, cannot be used. When an emergency response is necessary swift action is available through a fleet of helicopters, which includes a fleet of seven S92’s with capacity for 18 passengers, as well as a marine fleet that includes floatels, offshore supply vessels, fast supply boats, and construction vessels. “We can use these to remove people, improve response, and reduce the loads on helicopters, Kenny says.

Once the area is no longer deemed a safety concern, BP’s after-storm response acts just as quickly to resume business and initiate humanitarian efforts. BP created an online Storm Center website, which is now available to track pre- and post-hurricane activity in real time: www.BP.com/StormCenter

Image: Hurricane Ike 2008, credit: NASA GOES project