The international hunt for resources in the arctic is unlikely to lead to confrontation, but it is possible, the SPE Arctic and Extreme Environments conference heard in Moscow today.
Former British diplomat in Russia, Sir Anthony Brenton, fellow at Wolfson College, Cambridge University, said positioning for arctic resources goes back a long way, but that historically it was over sea routes, for trade.
While interest in sea routes, the North West passage specifically, continues, another increasing interest is in resources, with an estimated 90billion boe of hydrocarbons within the arctic, says Brenton.
The search for resources has its own challenges, he said. While climate change, resulting in diminishing sea ice, had the potential to make exploration easier, outside organisations with interests in the region, such as Green Peace, were also making operations in the region more complicated.
His comments were highlighted later in the day, when, the speaker of a session on oil spill preparedness for the Prirazlomnaya development, which is in the Pechora Sea, faced strong questioning from the industry audience.
The development has made international headlines after activists from Green Peace were arrested after attempting to scale Gazprom's Prirazlomnaya platform.
Arctic exploration faces further issues, not least protecting the environment, but also indigenous communities, logistics and project economics.
One of the issues facing the arctic region is sovereignty of its waters, says Brenton. While Russia and Norway resolved a dispute over theirs borders in the Barents in 2010, claims are outstanding over other parts of the arctic.
Brenton mentioned the Lomonosov Ridge, a successful claim on which is thought would result in Russia gaining sovereignty over the North Pole.
Canada has an unresolved claim over areas water off its shores, which would give it control of part of the North West Passage.
The US hasn't ratified its participation in the Law of the Sea, which puts doubt over its observance of the treaty, which forms the legal basis for much regulatory activity relating to the sea.
China has also stated it believes no one should have sovereignty over the arctic, says Brenton.
While he believed confrontation was unlikely, it was not impossible, he said. There had been regular delays (Shtokman) and "blanching" of projects, he said.
"But there is lots to play for," he added. "This is still relatively untouched territory and there are other players becoming interested.
"Interaction of outsiders is getting more active and complicating further development of the arctic. Having said this, the human race is actually quite good at solving these problems if they are far enough away."
Brenton was speaking in the opening plenary session of SPE Arctic & Extreme Environments. The event continues tomorrow and Thursday.
Brenton joined the british diplomatic Service in 1975 and, in the course of a 33 year career, served in the arab world, the european union, russia and the USA.
He served as british ambassador in Moscow 2004-2008 and is now director of the Russia British Chamber of Commerce.
Image: Brenton speaking at SPE Arctic & Extreme Environments, Moscow.
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