In the short term there will be a dash for gas, but longer term the key to global energy supplies could be solar, yesterday’s SPE Offshore Europe breakfast briefing heard.
Professor John Miles, Arup/Royal Academy of Engineering research professor in transitional energy strategies, University of Cambridge, was discussing his personal views on UK energy policy. He said the country is facing a major challenge, with aging power generation plants, a “draconian carbon reduction target” and a bewildering array of rules and laws, from feed in tariffs for renewables to the electricity market reform.
He said market interventions supporting offshore wind and other renewables, to date, were limited in what they could achieve and were costly. On and offshore wind, promoted by early support, were still more costly than gas – at $2.5billion/GW with 25-30% availability for onshore wind and $4billion/GW and 35-40% available for offshore wind, compared to $0.8billion/GW for combined cycle gas generation, with 90% availability.
“If we are to meet the 2050 (carbon reduction) target, we will need 30% of renewables by 2020,” he said. “But it is becoming obvious it is not economic.”
In addition, the population of the UK is expected to increase by 30%, he said, and energy demand double, he said.
He said shale oil and gas offered a solution. Despite having to reduce the price of coal in Europe in the short term, exports of US shale gas could start and the resource exploited elsewhere globally, he said.
“In the short run, I think there will be a dash for gas because it is cheap, reliable and relatively clean. If it lives up to the potential being made for it.
“But the ramifications are bad news, because it could mean missing targets, because there would be no incentives. In the long term, I’m sure the answer is solar.”
He later added that gas could be the back bone of the UK’s energy supplies, with nuclear as a “powerful backup’, with the renewables meeting the balance.
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