DNV: “The Pace of the Transition is Far from Fast Enough”

DNV has released the 7th edition of its Energy Transition Outlook highlighting that global energy-related emissions are still climbing and are only likely to peak in 2024. “The pace of the transition is far from fast enough for a net-zero energy system by 2050,” states the report.

Over the last five years (2017–2022) renewables met 51% of new energy demand and fossil sources 49%. In absolute terms, fossil-fuel use is still growing.

“Our prediction is that emissions from oil use will peak in 2025 and those from natural gas in 2027,” says Remi Eriksen, Group president and CEO. “Achieving a net-zero energy system by 2050 to secure a 1.5°C warming future is more difficult than ever. That does not mean we should not be aiming for that target. With more expansive policies promoting renewable electricity and other zero-carbon solutions, not just in the high-income world, but globally, we have the means to keep the world on track to be at, or very near, net zero by mid-century.”

DNV forecasts that global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 will be 46% lower than today, and by 2030, emissions will only be 4% lower than they are today.

The transition will still be massive with wind and solar growing 10-fold and 17-fold respectively between 2022 and 2050. Electricity production is set to double, requiring huge infrastructure investments. Clean energy will account for 52% of the energy mix by 2050.

For maritime, DNV states: “In a world where GDP doubles by 2050, the demand for cargo transportation will outweigh efficiency gains. Consequently, cargo tonne-miles are projected to rise across most ship categories, with a total growth of 40% from 2022 to 2050.”

Coal transport is expected to halve by 2050, and crude oil and oil products transport is expected to decrease by 20%. In the coming years, transport by sea is expected to become more expensive due to an increasing share of low-emission fuels in the maritime fuel mix. This might impact established transport routes in cases where domestic production might have an advantage over higher-priced transportation.