You just might get it.
In the waning days of the Biden administration, the executive orders and such that get announced seemingly on a daily basis signal countless victories for that side of the equation. And, no matter which side of that great divide that you reside on, it is likely that some of those edicts will be quickly reversed by the incoming President. Of course, much of this is likely irreversible. No where is that more apparent than Biden's order to withdraw 625 million acres of ocean from new offshore oil and gas development.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is on record as saying that he will quickly revoke the offshore oil and gas drilling ban, but I’m told that this will be easier said, than done. That’s [apparently] because the 70-year-old Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act allows presidents to remove areas from mineral leasing and drilling but does not grant them the legal authority to overturn prior bans. A 2019 court ruling signals that a reversal would likely require an act of Congress. If so, the slim GOP majorities in both the House and Senate might make that possible, but certainly not a slam dunk certainty. After all, Republicans have never been really that good at herding the cats.
When it comes to the domestic waterfront, I have a personal credo that I live by, especially where business and regulatory decisions impact the livelihoods of thousands of mariners, the support businesses that cater to that sector, and the business model that so many U.S.-flag operators base their decisions on. It is a simple belief, but a good one. That’s because when it comes to offshore business, Energy is Energy.
In this day and age, I really don’t care where it comes from: oil and gas, wind or anything else. Any and all of that will always need workboats and mariners. That was true yesterday, it is true today, and I don’t know much more, but I do know that it’ll be true 100 years from now. That’s all predicated on whether we have offshore energy at all. On our current course, I’m not so sure about THAT.
The so-called pundits and experts tell us, in partial defense of the latest anti-fossil fuel move by the White House, that the vast majority of what’s been set aside as a ‘no-go’ zone for oil & gas interests are areas that no one wants to drill in, or are near coastal areas that the public doesn’t want exploited in any event. Biden, they say, “is leaving the possibility open for new oil and natural gas leasing in the central and western areas of the Gulf of Mexico, which account for around 14% of the nation's production of these fuels.” For staunch environmentalists, the ban would cement Biden's legacy as the guy who not only addressed climate change, but also blazed the trail to decarbonizing the U.S. economy by 2050.
All of that is okay, says the environmental lobby. We’ve got the burgeoning offshore wind sector set to kick off the offshore energy boom that they’ve been promising for two decades. Separately, and for the domestic workboat sector, that’s also nominally a good thing. For example, I’m told that idle OSV assets from the Gulf Coast are currently working on the upper east coast on wind projects. In the absence of ‘built-for-purpose’ tonnage for the Jones Act wind sector, those vessels are the temporary ticket to kicking off the offshore wind party. At the same time, a fairly robust newbuild program is also underway to produce the right vessels to more efficiently propel the offshore development of the wind industry.
It wasn’t too long ago – mid-November 2024 actually – that I attended a very interesting and well organized offshore wind conference and presentation in New Orleans. Immediately preceding an annual workboat trade event, the timing was just about right; both in terms of its positioning down the street from a tradeshow that promised to showcase the best of what the workboat world had to offer, but also because it occurred in the immediate wake of Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the November elections. There was something for everyone; laughter, tears and a good dose of reality, to boot.
An engaging PowerPoint presentation laid out the many reasons for optimism for not only the expansion of the offshore wind sector on a global scale, but also the long-awaited breakout for the domestic, offshore USA wind sector. Actually, one of the key take-aways from this event was highlighted in a panel discussion that advocated for not only a robust newbuild vessel program to support the coming hurricane of wind energy, but the development of those vessels in what was couched as a “multi-mission” mode. That makes a lot of sense. It also sounds a lot like my personal credo: “Offshore Energy is Offshore Energy, no matter where it emanates from.” Therefore, these shiny new boats should be prepared to support offshore wind, as well as oil and gas.
The offshore wind conference also acknowledged the risks of a new administration; one which hasn’t had a lot of good things to say about offshore wind. Taken at face value, the Trump administration’s possible stance could include many things, much of which wouldn’t be friendly to offshore wind. The use of federal funds, subsidies and tax breaks – something that has been key to the development of offshore wind elsewhere, in particular across the big pond in the EU – will probably be in short supply in the New Year, and beyond.
Nevertheless, individual states – like the People’s Republic of Massachusetts, for example – have signaled a willingness to spend the taxpayer’s money on local offshore wind. Nobody is any longer concerned, apparently, with disturbing the pristine view from the Kennedy Compound at Hyannis port. Looking ahead, the Commonwealth, and many of their other coastal counterparts, will certainly need those local financial commitments. That’s because offshore wind can’t stand on its own two legs without various subsidies in their many forms, in order to compete with – gasp! – offshore oil and gas.
It’s been a while (2017, actually) since Trump tried to reverse ocean withdrawals from the previous administration, but a federal judge ruled in 2019 that the law does not give presidents the legal authority to overturn prior bans. Assuming that to be the case going forward, and failing to herd the GOP cats in this version of Congress, the environmental lobby will have their victory and probably a few raucous parties to celebrate the good news. That celebration could be short-lived.
No one expects the new administration to sit on its hands when it comes to energy policy in the New Year. No doubt, four years of contrary policy decisions will take a while to unravel and some of those policies may prove to be unassailable. But offshore energy bans cut both ways. The latest ban(s) could well be permanent. The next round of decisions probably won’t. That said; four years – and it could well be eight or twelve, if the nation’s current mood is any indication – is a long time for the offshore wind industry to wait for the tide to turn.
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it 100 times: “Offshore Energy is Offshore Energy – no matter where it comes from.” We should be careful what we wish for. We might just get it. Actually, a part of me hopes that we do.
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NOTE: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
Joseph Keefe is the Editor of MarineNews magazine, and a 1980 graduate of the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. A licensed mariner, his career has spanned more than 40 years in the maritime, shipping and energy sectors. His work has been featured in more than 15 industry periodicals. Today, he contributes to all of the New Wave Media tiles, as needed. Reach him at [email protected]
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