Europe's wind farms could produce more electricity than the region's coal-fired power plants for the first time in 2025 if the recent pace of output growth in wind production and output cuts in coal generation extends through the year.
Total electricity generated by Europe's wind farms was just 4% less than by the continent's coal plants in 2024, at 616 terawatt hours (TWh) versus 641 TWh, according to data from energy think tank Ember.
Compared to the year before, coal generation was 7% lower in 2024 while wind generation was 3% higher, and if those output changes are repeated in 2025 then Europe's wind electricity production will surpass coal production by around 6% in 2025.
Greater full-year generation by wind farms over coal plants would mark the first time a single source of renewable energy surpassed coal-fired electricity output in any major region, and would be a key energy transition milestone.
Narrowing the Gap
The 25 TWh shortfall in wind generation compared to coal-fired generation in 2024 is around half of the amount of electricity produced by Europe's wind farms each month, according to Ember.
As a result, that output gap could easily be made up over the course of 2025 by an increase in regional wind generation capacity or by higher average wind speeds at turbine level, or by some combination of both.
According to industry group Wind Europe, regional power firms added 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind generation capacity in 2024, bringing the region's total wind capacity to around 287 GW. Read full story
That rise in generation footprint should allow the region's wind farms to lift regional electricity production to a record in 2025, potentially to around 652 TWh if the 6% growth in capacity yields an equal-sized rise in electricity output.
Key Risks
That potential 652 TWh of wind electricity output should be enough to surpass regional coal generation in 2025, even if coal-fired output holds flat this year from 2024's levels.
But if coal-fired output in 2025 declines by the same degree as it did in 2024 - by 7% - then wind generation could surpass coal-fired generation by close to 10%, and mark a major turning point in regional energy transition efforts.
However, there are several risks facing Europe's power sector this year that could still result in regional coal power remaining above regional wind output.
The main potential disruptive factor is the supply of natural gas, which looks set to contract again in 2025 after pipeline flows from Russia to certain European markets dropped from last year's levels. Read full story.
Natural gas is the region's main power source, so reduced gas supplies this year could force Europe's utilities to boost coal use in order to offset lower system generation from gas.
Just a 1% drop in natural gas-fired electricity generation would require power firms to produce around 10 TWh more electricity from other sources.
And if coal-fired plants are the main means of offsetting that lower gas-fired output, then regional coal-fired production could jump back above 650 TWh for the year, and potentially remain above wind output in 2025.
Another key risk is an extended run of below-normal wind speeds across Europe's wind farms.
In 2024, Europe's monthly wind electricity totals dropped below the year-before total on five occasions, even with the rise in overall generation capacity last year.
These year-over-year generation drops came not just during the summer - when wind speeds tend to hit their annual lows - but also during October and November when autumnal winds typically pick up and boost wind electricity output.
The low wind speed problem was particularly acute in Germany - the region's top wind producer - and remains a worry for power firms so far in 2025. Read full story
The latest German wind generation forecasts by LSEG call for wind output to remain below the long-term average for the next week or so, but then climb back above normal towards the end of the month.
Further spells of low wind speeds throughout the year could curtail overall wind generation in 2025.
An additional risk is the region's level of industrial activity, which has been subdued since 2022 due to above-normal energy costs and weak consumer demand.
Continued weakness among smokestack plants and factories should keep overall coal use in power generation under pressure, and potentially trigger further cuts to coal use in Europe.
However, a synchronized upturn in Europe's industrial activity would trigger a rise in overall energy consumption, which would result in greater output from all power sources as power suppliers try to keep up with demand.
Of course, higher overall wind output could help supply much of the extra electricity needed, and help to accelerate the regional power sector pivot away from polluting fuels.
But coal will likely remain a key back-up fuel and could enjoy a resurgence in use if wind production becomes stymied through much of 2025.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
(Reuters - Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Michael Perry)
Subscribe
